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In
Kansas Conditions El Nino is working with Better Margins, Exactrix.
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Bloomberg Reports.
Forecasters
are predicting that El Nino, characterized by ocean warming in the
equatorial Pacific, may be the strongest since records began in 1950.
It has already brought torrential rains to parts of South America
and dryness to Southeast Asia.
The
Philippines said on Thursday
it plans to boost rice imports to prepare for potential shortages,
while Rabobank International warned that wheat crops in Australia
may be under threat.
Demand for
food may also be larger than some analysts anticipate, leaving
consumers vulnerable to shortfalls in production, Nomura analysts
said in an e-mailed report Thursday.
Crop shortfalls and surging prices contributed to sparking riots and
civil unrest in some countries over the past decade.
“It may
not take much disruption in global food supply to trigger another
price surge,” analysts including Rob Subbaraman and Michael Kurtz
said in the report. Shortages “could be compounded by feedback
loops such as increased hoarding, financial speculation and trade
protectionism,” they said.
World food
prices tracked by the United Nations have tumbled to the lowest
levels since 2009 after bumper global harvests of everything from
corn to soybeans to wheat. The gauge, which tracks prices for 73
food products, surged to records in 2008 and in 2011 after crop
shortfalls.
Countries where
people spend higher proportions of their income on food would be
most affected, with economic growth shrinking and inflation
potentially jumping in some nations, Nomura said. Bangladesh,
Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Pakistan are among those most at risk,
while large net-exporters including New Zealand, Uruguay, the
Netherlands and Argentina would benefit, it said.
Food prices
probably will rise during the next decade as demand increases,
especially in developing countries, and developments in agricultural
productivity and arable land supplies lag behind, Nomura said.
To contact the reporter on
this story: Whitney McFerron in London at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lynn Thomasson at
lthomasson@bloomberg.net
Tony Barrett, Nicholas Larkin
Better
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